Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke is accused of using classified employment data to pocket more than $400,000 from Polymarket.
A US Army Green Beret has been arrested on allegations that he used classified information from the operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro to place high bets in the prediction markets that have already been shaken by billions of dollars in questionable timing bets during the US-Israeli war against Iran.
Prosecutors say Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke bet $32,000 on Polymarket and pocketed more than $400,000 betting on Maduro’s ouster, using insider knowledge from his role in planning and executing the January coup.
According to the Department of Justice, Van Dyke is facing charges including financial fraud, product fraud, and illegal use of government information. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a similar complaint, while Polymarket said it flagged the suspicious activity itself and is cooperating with investigators.
The case is now prompting a wide-ranging investigation into the prediction markets that turned war operations and regime change into business deals, with Venezuela just the beginning.
During the US-Israel war against Iran, predictions and traditional financial markets witnessed a flood of suspiciously timed bets linked to airstrikes, cease-fires, unexpected information and diplomatic turmoil.
Traders put more than 1 billion dollars in “Fully out of date” bets, including an $850,000 bet just before the U.S. attacked Iran and about $950 million in oil futures hours before Trump announced the ceasefire, according to the Guardian. That ad alone generated more than 413 million bets and more than $100 million in bets in the prediction markets in just a few days, according to the AP.
Reporter: There are also bets being placed on the Iran conflict. People suspect that there is insider trading going on. Are you worried? Trump: Unfortunately, the whole world has become like a casino. I don’t like it conceptually. That’s how it is. pic.twitter.com/t1OPOUWHub
– Acyn (@Acyn) April 23, 2026
Scrutiny has also fallen on the Trump family’s links to the industry over potential conflicts of interest. The New York Times reported in January that Donald Trump Jr. he had advisory relationships with neck-and-neck rivals Polymarket and Kalshi, and also had investments in the former through his venture firm, 1789 Capital.
The White House warned staff against using inside information on March 24, a day after Trump ordered a five-day moratorium on planned strikes against Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure.
President Trump himself downplayed the lure of gambling on Thursday, saying he was “I don’t enjoy any of that” but add that “The whole world, unfortunately, has become a casino.”
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