Ukraine and its allies in Europe are holding their breath and waiting to learn how the Iran war might affect US military aid—and especially the delivery of powerful Patriot air defense missiles that Kyiv has relied on to neutralize the devastating impact of Russian ballistic missiles.
“Everything will depend on the situation around Iran,” said one European diplomat, who – like others quoted for this story – was not authorized to speak publicly.
Ukraine and its allies in Europe are holding their breath and waiting to learn how the Iran war might affect US military aid—and especially the delivery of powerful Patriot air defense missiles that Kyiv has relied on to neutralize the devastating impact of Russian ballistic missiles.
“Everything will depend on the situation around Iran,” said one European diplomat, who – like others quoted for this story – was not authorized to speak publicly.
Russia has long tried to quell Ukrainian resistance with ballistic missiles, particularly by using them to target Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, according to Yasir Atalan, deputy director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank. Russian attacks on Ukraine energy sites using drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles hit the peak this winter, leave Many Ukrainians from time to time without power or heat.
Since April 2023, the United States has donated Patriot anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, which are designed to handle the difficult task of intercepting a ballistic missile. Ballistic missiles work by launching a rocket into the air and then crashing into their target. European nations have ever they also contributed Patriot missiles to Ukraine.
In July 2025, however, the Trump administration stopped issuing the missiles and began instead to sell for NATO countries, which then give them to Ukraine. The system is called Ukraine’s Priority List of Needs, or PURL program. Weapons sold under PURL are either delivered directly from US stockpiles or manufactured anew, a US Defense Department spokesman said. Foreign Policy.
The system has never been perfect. The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has often complained about a scarcity of interjections. European Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius he said in March that Ukraine needs about 2,000 Patriot missiles per year, still Kyiv has been received only 600 interventions for four years, Zelensky’s adviser told New York Times the month of March.
The missiles’ effectiveness has also dropped to just 25 percent, according to Atalan—partly because of the Russians. correction.
But that rate could drop further if Washington stops supplying missiles at all.
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United States is now used as such half of his list of estimated 2,330 Patriot missiles in defense against Iran’s ballistic missiles since the start of the Iran war on February 28. And they may end up using more. While the war seems to have entered a stalemate, Tehran is reported it retains at least half of its missile launchers, meaning more Patriot missiles may be needed if fighting resumes.
To make matters worse for Kyiv, the missiles are also in high demand for US military needs elsewhere, in particular defend against a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In fact, the United States is already likely to lack what it needs, said Tom Karako, director of CSIS’s Missile Defense Project. “We are hitting a dangerous spot,” he said.
Neither is it stimulate production an easy way to solve a riddle. The current delivery time for the newest variant of the Patriot missile, the PAC-3 MSE, is about 42 months from conception to delivery, and the US makes less than 200 a year, according to for CSIS.
A diplomat from a country contributing to the PURL as well as Europe’s second-highest diplomat said that the United States has assured allies that weapons already paid for under the PURL will be delivered.
After that, however, it is unknown. “There is still not much certainty,” on future PURL packages, said a diplomat from a PURL-contributing nation. A top European diplomat expressed doubts about more packages due to US demand.
And Trump administration officials have sent signals that are not encouraging to Ukraine.
US Vice President JD Vance he said on April 14 that ending military aid to Ukraine was one of the actions of the White House that he was “proud of.” The next day, speaking at a meeting of pro-military Ukraine, the head of Pentagon policy Elbridge Colby he said that Washington “is ready to continue to help through programs like PURL, but this support should not depend on significant US contributions.”
America in a nutshell has been discontinued his support for Ukraine in March 2025, then again in July, it was reported that Colby’s plan was due to concerns about the impact on the US weapons stockpile.
Trump may also see PURL as a way to gain leverage over Ukraine. He has from time to time discussed reduced aid to Ukraine on Kyiv to be “difficult” and reported threatened suspend the PURL program unless the Europeans join the United States in opposing Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Kyiv elections without the United States is limited. Ukraine is ongoing anti-ballistic missile that it hopes to launch by the end of 2027, but the technology is challenging to produce.
The most comparable anti-ballistic missile system produced in Europe is the SAMP/T. However, the production rate for its missiles is estimated to 300 or fewer receivers a year—far fewer than the 2,000 Kubilius said are needed. Zelensky previously noted the lack of interceptors of the SAMP/T systems that Ukraine already has, and said that the Nationalists had more. efficiency.
Germany also produces Patriot missiles, which can supply Ukraine. This month, the US defense contractor Raytheon he announced a $3.7 billion contract to begin production in Germany of the main variant of the PAC-2 Patriot missile for deployment in Ukraine, and several hundred missiles will be installed. eventually in the hands. That delivery will take time, though, to happen over the next three years. German-made Patriots are also subject to US International Traffic in Arms Regulations and therefore require Washington’s approval for export.
Still, there is at least a chance for hope on the part of Ukraine.
Trump himself seems happy with the notion that the Europeans are paying the US for weapons that Ukraine needs and has. mentioned topic from time to time in media appearances.
Europe also has a lot of money to buy weapons, following consent on April 23 of the aid package of 106 billion dollars for Ukraine. The package encourages arms acquisition within Europe but does unless for items found only outside of this continent, such as the Patriot missile.
At least some Europeans believe that Trump is unlikely to cancel the deal. “I think President Trump likes PURL,” a third senior European diplomat said. “He came up with this brilliant idea of how to get the Europeans to pay for American weapons to be delivered to Ukraine.”
Trump also appears to be aware of Russian missile strikes targeting Ukrainian civilians, telling Russian President Vladimir Putin “STOP” on April 24, 2025, calling the Russian missile attack on Kyiv “a terrible thing” on 8 December of that year.
If the delivery of Patriot missiles ends, Russia may rely more on ballistic missile attacks to take advantage of Ukraine’s lack of defenses, said Atalan of CSIS. Such strikes “could have a more (significant) impact on electricity supply,” he added.
Still, he cautioned that it is unlikely to be a “game changer.” As mentioned, Ukraine’s Patriot missiles already intercept about 25 percent of incoming Russian missiles, and Ukraine has been able to fight back, in part by focusing. to make its fast energy grid. And unlike the sometimes wavering American support for the military sector of Ukraine, Kyiv has been successful in the United States government and business interests in its energy sector.
Ukraine’s resilience may be an aspect that some in the US administration may not be counting on.
“Sometimes, when I talk to (US) officials, they see Ukraine as a country that will not be able to survive for a day or two without international aid,” said a diplomat from a country participating in PURL. “But I think Ukraine has proven again and again—on the battlefield, politically, socially…that this is a force to be reckoned with.”
