Prime Minister Jacinta Allan will head into her final cabinet meeting before the winter break with leadership whispers swirling around her, as Labour’s struggling popularity continues to cast doubt on parts of her caucus.
Allan glared at desperate MPs in March, describing them as scallywags who need pamperingbut his leadership has become a controversial issue for members of his party fearing to lose their seats in the race for the state elections in November.
The government has endured another difficult week in parliament, highlighted by a delayed commitment to reform the headquarters of the Independent Anti-Corruption Commission, messy talks over campaign finance laws, and repeated questioning about character references issued by new minister Luba Grigorovitch.
This is happening as the government enters an unpredictable election season, with the Labor party facing a serious challenge from One Nation, like that of its traditional opponents.
Age spoke to six Labor MPs in the division of the groups who, without mentioning their names to avoid repercussions, said the leadership rumors continue again and the challenge could take place before the November 28 election.
They pointed to numerous polls showing Allan’s popularity had fallen and Labour’s primary vote was collapsing. What is possible is whether the next round of voting energy or reduce the anxiety of the back.
The Resolve Political Monitor published by Age soon we will be in the field seeking the opinion of the voters. Its most recently published results, from an April survey, showed that the state’s primary vote was Labor at 27 per cent, Union at 29 per cent and One Nation at 21 per cent.
Only 20 percent of voters listed Allan as their preferred prime minister, with Opposition Leader Jess Wilson supported by 39 percent. They remained undecided.
On Thursday night, as Labor MPs dined in parliament during a break in an all-night debate on donation laws, there was much talk about the government’s chances at the November election, with reference to the party’s bad behavior on gambling sites.
A member of parliament said Age that Allan may have shot himself in the leg and face on the strength of IBAC.
“We needed to do something because people won’t stop talking about $15 billion,” they said. “But in acting now, we’ve refocused on that issue.”
Barrister Geoffrey Watson, SC, estimated earlier this year that corruption linked to the CFMEU cost approx. $15 billion on the $100 billion Big Build plan – one that Allan and his ministers have repeatedly opposed.
But Labor MPs agree that despite this denial, the figure has had a big difference with the public, and that they have continued to hear it mentioned on social networks and to their voters.
The main test for Allan will be a senior council meeting scheduled in a week and a half – the last moment before parliament wakes up for the winter break, a period known colloquially in political circles as the “murder season” due to the history of leadership challenges in Australian politics.
If no challenger emerges from the meeting, it will give the Prime Minister six weeks to raise his support before parliament resumes and the Labor Council meets again. The challenger would have to muster the numbers needed to hold a special caucus meeting in a non-session week.
No one has declared an intention to challenge the leadership and no official discussion about the spill has taken place. But two Labor MPs, from the Left and Right wings, told it Age that the leadership noise that emerged in March was not the end of the matter for Allan.
Any potential challenge to the Prime Minister has long hinged on whether the aspiring candidates can get enough votes from Labor’s Right and Left factions to be elected.
Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, from Right, and Transport Infrastructure Minister Gabrielle Williams and Major Events Minister Steve Dimopoulos, both from Left, have all been praised.
They have been contacted for comment. Allan’s office has not yet responded to questions about the new leadership rumors.
Some MPs have spoken to Williams who has said he will not position himself as a leadership candidate.
Under the party’s rules, the new Labor leader will need to win the vote of both parliaments and the vote of party members if there is more than one nominee.
Shedding leadership is also not an easy task if Allan does not agree to step aside.
Under the ALP’s national party rules passed in 2013 to deal with the volatility of The Rudd and Gillard federal governmentsthe leadership challenge must be decided by the votes of the party members and the session vote, each given equal weight.
The rules require the support of more than 60 percent of the upper house to replace an incumbent prime minister, but it is not clear whether this also applies to state chief ministers. The current laws have never been tried in Victoria, which last had a Labor leadership in 1999.
A Left MP told him Age that lawmakers were upset about the “bad week” and having to stay up until 11:00 on Friday to pass appropriations laws, and things could be cool.
“I’m not sure the numbers are there,” they said.
Another Left Member of Parliament said it is not clear whether the party will benefit from the change in leadership.
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