Tthings alas It’s as certain as bluebonnets in the spring now that Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee for the Senate in Texas: Democrats have a better chance than usual of winning the entire state. And the next 23 weeks are going to be awful.
Paxton’s big win comes just days after President Trump stuck his finger in the wind, determined that his incumbent, John Cornyn, was happy, and gave the attorney general his last-minute support. Although the near total of 28 points was surprising, it will probably always be Paxton. Reruns tend to attract more die-hard voters — the kind of determined voter who’s willing to not just turn out to vote in March, but to turn out and vote in March, sit through 12 weeks of brutal advertising, then return to the polls in May. The kind of Republican who can argue, as one woman did in Dallas when I talked to him last weekthat Paxton and Trump bring masculinity back to the party like Bambi’s father “coming out of the woods with those big whales.”
Now that these staunch Republicans have secured their dreams, they will turn their attention to his opponent in the general election: James Talarico, a 37-year-old Democratic state congressman and aspiring Presbyterian minister.
Paxton, the hero of the MAGA people, seems more committed to the movement than Trump himself. As attorney general, he filed several impeachments against Presidents Obama and Biden, and sued to challenge the results of the 2020 election. Paxton and Trump appear to share a very similar moral and legal rap sheet: Both men have been indicted (Paxton’s charges involved securities fraud and were dismissed after he agreed to do community service and take an ethics class); both have been impeached (Paxton was suspended by the Texas Legislature but later acquitted by the Senate); and both have been accused of—and denied—infidelity. (Angela Paxton is now divorcing Ken on “biblical grounds.”)
Although Talarico is not yet recognized by Paxton’s name, he has the energy of a youth pastor and, at least for now, a high moral standard. As a faith-based investor, Talarico has a basic campaign message of love conquering hate, and young people taking on billionaires. Republicans know they have a tough race ahead of them, which is why they’re already settling on a strategy: make Talarico look like a weird dude.
Unfortunately for Democrats, Talarico has been more than helpful in this effort. In 2021, the member of parliament said that “God is not a man of two types,” a statement that offends some Christians, not because they believe that God is God. literally person but because they cannot understand why someone would drag God into a worldly debate about gender identity. Talarico also said that there are six biological sexes and that he supports access to abortionin part, because God asked for permission when he blessed Mary with the baby Jesus. As a candidate in 2022, he promised to run a “meat-free campaign,” which would never do well in cattle country.
Lately, Talarico has been making a comeback. “I know there are two genders, male and female. I also know there is a very small percentage of people who have these chromosomal disorders, and I believe they deserve to be treated with dignity and respect,” he told CBS this week, adding that there are “some statements I’ve made that I certainly regret.” Whenever Talarico is accused of not favoring meat, his campaign it transmits the image of a candidate stuttering a turkey leg at a state fair.
Still, both sides have plenty of material to work with. That’s why the next few months promise a full stream of negative publicity online, and on the airwaves in Texas. Democrats will ride on Paxton’s voter scandal—and the failure of Republican leadership. “Will Republicans get away with a campaign of superficial attacks when Texans are hurting so bad?” Matt Angle, a Democratic state strategist, told me. “They have ruled for 30 years. If something went wrong, they broke it.” At the same time, the Republicans already parrot Paxton’s nicknames are “Tala-freako” and “Low-T Talarico”. This morning, Trump adviser Stephen Miller wrote on X that Democrats have nominated their “first transgender senate candidate.” (Talarico is not transgender.) “We haven’t seen the ugly face yet,” Vinny Minchillo, a Texas Republican strategist, told me. They will make Talarico “the awakened DEI candidate of all DEI candidates. And beat him, beat him, beat him.”
The task ahead will be difficult for Talarico, who will have to decide when to face these attacks head-on—Explain yourself so you don’t get definedas the political saying goes—and time to remain firmly on his moral high horse. He will also have to fend off the unprecedented amount of money Republicans are pouring into the race to protect their fragile Senate majority. Already, Paxton has the support of the National Republican Senate Committee, which previously endorsed Cornyn and which, last night, responsibly cleaned his website for all press releases and anti-Paxton ads.
Yet for Talarico, hope remains. No Texan needs reminding that inflation is high, or that the war in Iran is global and gas prices are rising. Trump’s polling is bad, and among Texans, Talarico has a higher number of favoritism than Paxton and the president. In what could end up being a good year for Democrats, victory is not only possible but within reach.
Still, if there’s one thing Democrats have done well in Texas over the past 30 years, it’s optimism. The last time a Democrat came close to winning the state in Texas was in 2018. Back then, Sen. Ted Cruz defeated Beto O’Rourke by about 215,000 votes. This time, the statistics that Republicans are looking at are 778,139or the number of Texans who voted in the March GOP primary but weren’t excited enough about any Republican candidate to vote in the runoff. The decline in turnout was expected. But the 36 percent decline “reflects the lack of Republican enthusiasm that we’ve seen in other states,” Minchillo said. For Texas Republicans, that number is “depressing.”
Last night on Social Reality, Trump congratulated Paxton and promised to hold a few meetings to help build momentum. “Texas, this is going to be FUN!” the president joked. We will see.
