US President Donald Trump suddenly he announced the extension of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran on Tuesday, a few hours after threatening to resume bombing country if an agreement is not reached before the agreement is completed the next day. Citing Iran’s “badly broken” government, Trump said he would hold off on attacking the country until its leaders come up with a “unified proposal” for a peace deal. He did not give a deadline.
This was not the first time during the war that Trump moved quickly from warning Iran of impending violence and destruction to leaving the door open for diplomacy. The fact that he has regularly supported the threats show that Trump is eager to end the conflict that is unpopular in the United States and has caused a global energy crisis.
US President Donald Trump suddenly he announced the extension of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran on Tuesday, a few hours after threatening to resume bombing country if an agreement is not reached before the agreement is completed the next day. Citing Iran’s “badly broken” government, Trump said he would hold off on attacking the country until its leaders come up with a “unified proposal” for a peace deal. He did not give a deadline.
This was not the first time during the war that Trump moved quickly from warning Iran of impending violence and destruction to leaving the door open for diplomacy. The fact that he has regularly supported the threats show that Trump is eager to end the conflict that is unpopular in the United States and has caused a global energy crisis.
But the ceasefire is still on ice, and it is unclear whether another round of peace talks will take place. US naval blockades on Iranian ports are still in place (although some ships are reportedly getting through), and Tehran still has a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran on Wednesday fired at several ships in the sea and two arrests.
Trump’s contradictory rhetoric and actions throughout the war—and his record of taking military action against Iran amid ongoing negotiations—are also among the many reasons a deal seems likely. Tehran, which has called the US sanctions a violation of the ceasefire, has made it clear that it does not trust Trump. Mahdi Mohammadi, adviser to the speaker of Iran’s parliament and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said extending the ceasefire meansthere is nothing” and it is “just a ploy to buy during a surprise strike.” Mostly on Wednesday too he said A ceasefire only makes sense if the US blockade ends.
Trump’s justification for extending the ceasefire—the fractured state of Iran’s leadership as a result of the war—is also a major obstacle to a diplomatic resolution. They are already there many signs that the main leaders of Iran’s talks, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi, are not the same as the hard-line people in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who seem to be increasing their power in the country’s decisions.
With a ceasefire hanging in the balance, here are five of the most important questions if the deal breaks down.
Will Israel’s war against Hezbollah resume?
The ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group, is also very fragile. Both sides have the suspect another violation since it went into effect last week, even as diplomacy continues between Israel and the Lebanese government.
The agreement is closely related to the ceasefire between the US and Iran, although Israel and the US have previously refused to include Lebanon as part of the agreement despite Tehran’s insistence that it be included. Before Trump announced a 10-day truce in Lebanon on April 16, the disagreement nearly completely derailed the US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Lebanon is looking for extras of the ceasefire, with further talks between Israeli and Lebanese diplomats expected to take place in Washington on Thursday. But if the US-Iran deal falls apart, it may lead to Israel resuming its operation in full in Lebanon.
Will the US launch a ground operation in Iran?
Before the announcement of a cease-fire between the United States and Iran, there was rampant speculation about Trump potentially putting US boots on the ground in Iran as part of a range of possible actions—including seizing the small but strategically important Kharg Island and acquiring Iran’s highly enriched uranium. Military experts have he warned that such operations would be too dangerous and put US troops at great risk. But it’s clear that options remain on the table.
The United States has more than 50,000 troops deployed in the Middle East, including thousands of Marines and paratroopers and hundreds of special operations forces. Thousands of additional troops are also on the way along with other military assets.
The operation to rescue the crew from a downed US warplane in early April is the only publicly known example of US ground troops entering Iran during the war so far. But if the cease-fire agreement collapses, Trump may decide that putting boots on the ground is necessary to increase pressure on Tehran and accomplish stated war goals (despite his dubious claims that US goals have already been met).
US Senator Roger Marshall, Republican, during the interview and Newsmax on Wednesday agreed with the notion that the United States will have to go to Iran to “finish the job” if a peace deal is not reached in the coming weeks.
What are Iran’s remaining military capabilities?
Trump and senior officials in his administration have repeatedly made big claims about the impact of US and Israeli attacks on Iran’s military. “We’ve taken out their navy. We’ve taken out their air force. We’ve taken out their leaders,” Trump. he said on Tuesday.
While there is no doubt that the war has resulted in the deaths of several senior Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and has significantly reduced Iran’s military, there are growing signs that the Trump administration has exacerbated the damage.
Between the recent downing of US warplanes and the ongoing attacks on commercial shipping, it is clear that Iran maintains an array of capabilities that will continue to pose a threat if the ceasefire breaks down.
Lieutenant General James Adams, head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, last week he told it Members of parliament that Iran “retains thousands of missiles and one-way attacks of UAV (drones) that can threaten US forces and allies throughout the region, despite the destruction of its capabilities from the cost and use.”
What is happening to the Strait of Hormuz?
Given that control of the Strait of Hormuz is still contested amid the ceasefire, this should be expected to continue if the accord falls apart. Iran’s stranglehold on the strait has been seen as its main strategy in the war, and Tehran appears poised to use control of the strategic waterway as a deterrent even after a peace deal. The future of the Strait of Hormuz is perhaps the biggest unresolved issue of the conflict as it stands.
Will the Houthis close Bab el-Mandeb?
The Houthi rebels, Iran’s ally in Yemen, may take action to cut off the Bab el-Mandeb area. main transportation route which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, should fighting resume between the US and Iran. Both of them The Houthis and Iran have pointed to the closure of Bab el-Mandeb as a possible retaliatory measure, which would add to the already heavy stress on the global economy brought about by the Hormuz situation.
This post is part of FP’s ongoing coverage. Read more here.
